LA Times analysis of California recall vote, across the rural-urban axis and on the basis of ethnicity

The Los Angeles Times published two stories yesterday on last week's California recall, one out of Lassen County in far northern California, the county with the largest margin for "yes" on the recall, and one out of California's Central Valley, where the "yes" vote won by a relatively narrow margin in most counties.  The first story, by Hailey Branson-Potts, dateline Janesville, population 1,408, is pretty focused on rurality.  The second story, by Maria La Ganga and Anita Chabria, reporting on Fresno and Merced counties, is not so rural-focused, though it might have been given that most of California considers the Great Central Valley rural in spite of its relative population density.  

The story out of Lassen County includes these excerpts: 

There was such fervor here in rural Lassen County — where a whopping 84% of voters supported the recall, the highest percentage in the state — that it was hard not to believe it could happen.

Then Newsom’s landslide victory landed like a kick in the shin with a steel-toed boot.

Ah, Branson-Potts is always great with the turn of (rural) phrase.  Here's more:  

“I went to bed really wanting to put a For Sale sign in front of my house,” said [Denise] Pickens, 50, as she sipped a chai tea latte outside Artisan Coffee in Janesville, population 1,400.

Once again, the votes of vast, rural Northern California, which overwhelmingly supported the recall, were drowned out by urban liberals, Pickens said.

“Part of me is just like, you know what, the Democratic progressive machine is what it is, and there’s just not enough of us,” she said.

Getting the recall on the ballot initially felt like a win here in Northern California, where conservatives have long felt they would be better off seceding to form their own state called Jefferson.

But there was no symbolic, emotional victory in forcing an election. The result was a walloping that displayed, in the harsh bright lights of a lopsided scoreboard, who is firmly in control of this state.

“The Democratic Party is the New York Yankees, and the Republican Party in this state is the Minor Leagues,” said Christopher Cole, the former chairman of the Lassen County Republican Party. “You can’t compete.”

The results — with Newsom prevailing 64% to 36% as of Friday — put California’s urban-rural divide on stark display. Every county in Southern California rejected the recall, as did the entire coast, save for tiny Del Norte County in the state’s northwest corner.

By the way, Hailey Branson-Potts' story attracted a lot of urban haters on Twitter, as you can see here and here.  I'm screen grabbing just two parts of that first thread to illustrate.  Many commenters asserted the Times should have talked to voters in San Francisco or Marin counties, where the vote against the recall mirrored Lassen County's vote in favor of it.  I admit I have no idea who the commenter (Charlee Ferry) is accusing of plagiarism and/or copyright infringement--Branson-Potts or some "yes" on recall supporter who Ferry assumes doesn't have original thoughts:

The LA Times story out of the Central Valley is focused on the LatinX.  The headline is "The Central Valley gives California a recall rarity: a squeaker of a race."  An excerpt follows: 

In 48 of California’s 58 counties, from Oregon to the Mexico border, voters either loved the guy or hated him, with double-digit differences on Saturday afternoon between the yes vote and the no.

Except for one small island in the middle of this vast state, where the recall election was a nail-biter.

Here in the agricultural heart of California, where the drought weighs heavy and the pandemic even heavier, the results were nearly 50-50.

In Merced County, the recall lost by 38 votes. In Fresno County, where the population just crested a million, it won by fewer than 2,000, according to an updated count released by local election officials Friday afternoon.

In both counties, that amounts to one percentage point or less separating yes and no.

Both sides here are claiming victory and both point to Latino voters as an important part of their success. Ballot counting continues throughout the state, and little will be known for sure until the vote is certified in just over a month. The political picture could shift at the county level.

But a few things are clear. The recall failed dramatically statewide. And demographics are destiny.

“The proportion of Latinos [in the Central Valley] is rapidly growing, and to the extent that Latinos have been showing a preference for the Democratic Party, it is an indicator of a strong future for the Democrats,” said Thomas Holyoke, a professor of political science at Fresno State University. “But the Latino vote breaks apart. ... The early returns from the recall show that a lot of Latino men backed the recall.”

Oddly, La Ganga and Chabria paid no attention to urbanization--to the fact that Fresno is the state's fifth largest city, though it did mention Clovis, Fresno's upmarket but smaller sister city.  Perhaps eventually we'll see analysis of Fresno City v. Fresno County voters.  

The journalists also paid no attention to education level.  I would also think that the presence of UC Merced, the youngest of the University of California schools, and the attendant influx of a more highly educated populace would be worthy of note regarding the vote there.  

My earlier post about the California recall vote is here.