Wednesday, September 15, 2021

Rural-urban in the California recall

The county-level map on the California gubernatorial recall has shifted somewhat this morning compared to last night.  Two big counties that flipped over night:  Placer and Fresno counties.  

As of about 10 pm last night, Placer County, suburban and exurban Sacramento and extending east to Lake Tahoe, was "no" on the recall, but this morning it is "yes" by a margin of 51-49%.  Other counties that shifted overnight include Inyo in the eastern Sierra, with "yes" votes now at just over 50%.  With the exception of Merced County, where the vote was "no" by a margin of about three dozen votes, and San Joaquin County, just south of Sacramento County, where "no" prevailed by a margin of 56% to 44%, the entire Central Valley stretching south from Sacramento, was "yes" on the recall.  The margin in Fresno County was especially narrow, with the "yes" vote prevailing by less than 100 votes out of 180K cast.  This region, while not entirely rural in terms of population density/sparsity, is widely referred to as rural because of its ag-centric economy.  

Another notable commentary on the rural-urban divide in the California recall vote is that all of the state's coastal counties were "no" on the recall except Del Norte County, at the Oregon state line.  I suppose that suggests rural gentrification in many of these sparsely populated communities, including Humboldt and Mendocino where the margins in favor of "no" were quite robust.  That is, city folks who lean left may be moving to these places in greater numbers, driving up property prices and shifting the electorate to the left.  

The so-called Gold Country/Motherlode was consistently "yes" on the recall, which was to be anticipated.  The widest margin among these counties was Amador County, just southwest of greater Sacramento, where the margin was 63% to 36%.  The state's Inland Empire was "no" on the recall with varying degrees of strength, with more support for recalling Newsom in Riverside and San Bernardino counties than in more heavily Latino/a Imperial County.  

Regarding the recall's outcome, Jonathan Martin observed in today's New York Times,  

Mr. Newsom found success not because of what makes California different but because of how it’s like everywhere else: He dominated in California’s heavily populated Democratic cities, the key to victory in a state where his party outnumbers Republicans by five million voters.  (emphasis added).  

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