Counties identified as exurbs by the American Communities Project account for about 12 percent of the nation’s population, but they could claim about half the national population growth in 2022.
Counties tagged by government economists as specializing in recreational activity account for 9 percent of the national population and 28 percent of the growth in 2022.
Kaufman County, Texas, about 35 miles southeast of downtown Dallas, is among the fastest-growing counties in the nation. Traditionally a hub for ranching and farming, Kaufman County has steadily suburbanized, and also encompasses parts of Cedar Creek Lake, a popular fishing and recreation area. Its population grew by 9 percent in 2022, and stands at 172,000, up from 40,000 in 1980.
Kaufman County became a popular place from which to telecommute during the pandemic, the story explains, and 70,000 homes are currently in the construction pipeline there, with prices in the $250,000 range.
Regarding amenity rich places, Gebeloff, Goldstein and Chen write:
Because of their growing populations, many exurban and vacation counties are in economic and cultural flux, said Jaap Vos, professor of planning and natural resources at the University of Idaho.
Affluent newcomers to areas like Sun Valley, Idaho, known for its ski resorts, may bring new political and spending habits and deplete natural resources, he noted — or may not live in their new homes year round.
“They may not care so much about the local coffee store and rather go to Starbucks,” Professor Vos said, adding, “Do they have kids? Can we convince them to spend money in our local stores? Are they as likely to volunteer for organizations or sit on boards?”
Then regarding immigration and natural decline, the story notes:
Overall, three-quarters of the nation’s counties experienced more deaths than births last year, a statistic that is “a rarity,” said Kenneth Johnson, a demographer at the University of New Hampshire. In 2018, just 45 percent of counties had more deaths than births.
* * *
But because the country was aging and experiencing low fertility rates even before the emergence of Covid-19, the numbers point toward immigration as a key driver of future growth. That puts pressure on the country to integrate newcomers into the job market, housing and schools.
This quote from Johnson, perhaps best known as a rural demographer, closes the story, which does not use the word "rural":
If places are going to grow, it’s immigration that helps.
This is a good occasion to share this recent story from the San Jose Mercury News about Livermore, California, between the Bay Area and the San Joaquin Valley and arguably exurban of a sort. The gist of the story is captured in the headline, "As the Bay Area Urbanizes Around it, Livermore is one of the Last Ag Cities Standing." The "ag city" juxtaposition is curious--and one that I find confusing. Here's an excerpt from Will McCarthy's story that perhaps helps to unpack the paradox in that headline:
From certain places on Darrel Sweet’s ranch near Altamont Pass, the world looks no different than it did 150 years ago. Wildflowers blanket the hillside. A ranch dog named J.J. chases squirrels across a muddy dirt track. Cows stand near a cattle pond, looking out at a range of rolling hills that seem to act as a bulwark against time.
But from one of the ranch’s hilltops, it’s clear that much has changed. Towering wind turbines dot every mountain. To the west are sprawling developments in Dublin. To the south, the suburban center of Livermore.
“When you’re in downtown Livermore, you’d think this place is all developed,” Sweet said. “But it’s not.”As cities around it have undergone explosive growth, residents say Livermore has maintained a sense of identity tied to its agricultural and ranching history. But that identity has also come into conflict with suburban development and the changing culture of the Bay Area.
Working farms and vineyards still surround the city of 86,000. An ancient ranch, part of the original Mission San Jose, is preserved in the center of town. And at Livermore High School, dozens of students continue to enroll in an agricultural sciences program — the last of its kind in Alameda County.
Thus, as one long-time resident put it, Livermore is a place where "you can find 'a physicist, a rancher, and a gravel pit worker all sitting together at the bar.'” The reference to physicist is because of the presence of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
Postscript: Here is what the Daily Yonder had to say about the new Census Bureau data in relation to rural communities.
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