On rural voter turnout in the Pennsylvania primary

Near Coburn, Pennsylvania (Centre County)
(c) Lisa R. Pruitt 2018

The Philadelphia Inquirer ran this Pennsylvania primary analysis by Aseem Shukla and Julia Terruso last week (and it was re-published by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette).  The headline is "Pa. primary election set voter turnout records. Here’s what else the data show," and the subhead is "More Democrats and Republicans voted than in any midterm primary election in the last 25 years. The voter turnout data show how the state’s political geography is shifting."  

Mural in Millheim, Pennsylvania
(c) Lisa R. Pruitt 2018

Here are some select excerpts focusing on geography and the rural vote:  

The state’s urban-suburban-rural divides are also growing between — and within — the parties. Pennsylvania Republicans are increasingly relying on rural areas, while Democrats are becoming a party of city dwellers and suburbanites. Those shifting coalitions have far-reaching effects.

* * * 

Geographic sorting between the parties is continuing

The parties’ long pattern of geographic self-segregation continues: Republicans are increasingly a rural and exurban party, while Democrats rely on urban and suburban voters.

What’s less obvious, but equally important, is that there are also important geographic divides within the parties.

Consider rural counties. They’ve always been more important in Republican primaries than in Democratic ones. But Democratic primary votes from rural counties now make up just one-sixth of the statewide total — half the share they did 20 years ago.

Penn Valley (c)Lisa R. Pruitt 2018 

By contrast, rural votes have consistently made up a third of the Republican primary electorate, even as overall turnout has increased and the rural population has significantly declined.

Many of these voters were mobilized by Trump’s 2016 campaign and have stayed engaged.

* * * 

Democratic growth continues in the suburbs. For decades, the four Philadelphia collar counties were a more significant source of primary votes for Republicans than for Democrats. But over the last decade, that pattern has reversed.

In 2000, Democrats got only 10% of their primary vote from these suburbs. Now, it’s almost 25%. Since Trump’s election, that’s been a bigger share than Republicans get from the suburbs.

 * * * 

Rural Republicans vote differently from urban and suburban ones

It’s clear rural Republicans aren’t just becoming more reliable voters — they also tend to vote for different candidates.

While Oz and McCormick [Republican contenders for the U.S. Senate; Oz was ultimately declared the Republican nominee] performed almost equally well in all regions of the state, smaller counties had a special affinity for far-right candidates Barnette [Republican candidate for U.S. Senate] and Mastriano [Republican nominee for Governor].

What’s more, rural voters — as well as supporters of Barnette and Mastriano more broadly — also voted heavily in person, shunning mail voting even more than other Republicans, who already generally avoid it.

Madisonburg, Pennsylvania
(c) Lisa R. Pruitt 2018

The three candidates with the lowest share of mail votes were Mastriano, Oz, and Barnette. The first two were endorsed by Trump, who has railed against mail voting. The third claimed Trump’s mantle all the same.

This analysis uses the definition of the Center for Rural Pennsylvania:  

The Center for Rural Pennsylvania's definition of rural and urban is based on population density. Population density is calculated by dividing the total population of a specific area by the total number of square land miles of that area. According to the 2020 Census, the population of Pennsylvania is 13,002,700 and the number of square miles of land in Pennsylvania is 44,742. Therefore, the population density is 291 people per square mile.

A county or school district is rural when the number of people per square mile within the county or school district is fewer than 291. Counties and school districts that have 291 people or more per square mile are considered urban.

A municipality is rural when the number of people per square mile in the municipality is fewer than 291 or the municipality is in a rural county and has fewer than 2,500 residents. All other municipalities are considered urban.

According to the Center's definition, there are 48 rural counties and 19 urban counties in Pennsylvania. In 2020, nearly 3.4 million residents, or 26 percent of the state's 13.0 million residents, called these rural counties home.

At the school district level, 238 of the state's 500 public school districts are rural. During the 2020-2021 school year, 374,732 public school students attended schools in rural districts, or 25 percent of the state's nearly 1.41 million public school students.

At the municipal level, 1,649, or 64 percent, of the state's 2,560 municipalities are rural and 911 municipalities, or 36 percent, are urban. In 2020, rural municipalities had a total of 2.9 million residents or 22 percent of the state's population. Urban municipalities had 10.1 million residents or 78 percent of the state's population.