Law and Order in the Ozarks (Part CXXXIII): another rural story about the U.S. Census

I've been trawling around my hometown newspaper, The Newton County Times, for pandemic coverage and saw this story about the 2020 Census count for Jasper, the county seat of Newton County.  While I was growing up there in the 1970s and 1980s, the sign at the edge of town announcing the population was either 394 or 512, as best as I can remember.  A photo I took of the sign in 2008 said 498, as featured in this post from Legal Ruralism's early days.  

(c) Lisa R. Pruitt 2008

The 2010 count was 524.  Now, the 2020 Census has found the population of Jasper to have again fallen below that 500 mark, to 482.  

Here's the coverage from the Newton County Times on August 23, 2021:

It wasn't a surprise, really, but Jasper Mayor Jan Larson said she didn't expect the town's census to drop as much as reported by the US Census Bureau which recently released results of the 2020 Census.

According to the census bureau, Jasper's updated population figure is now 482. The 2020 census had Jasper's population at a high of 524 in 2010, and according to its figures, has fallen yearly since.

But Larson said she and city staff conducted their own census count using water meter subscriptions and other city data and estimated the city's actual population is around 538.

The undercount can be attributed in part to the COVID-19 pandemic that delayed the accumulation of data by the census bureau, but other factors should be taken into account. Larson noted that the county still hasn't completely incorporated 911 addressing, noting that Jasper residents still have post office box numbers that are not recognized by the bureau. The bureau also relied on receiving data via of its website on the internet, but some residents don't have access to it or in some cases the bureau's electronic forms would not accept the data city residents tried to input.

There were also problems experienced by the canvassers who made repeated visits to residents because their information would not be recorded by the bureau.

All of this has me thinking more about this story from rural Colorado, where a county official took the accuracy of the count into her own hands, if you will, working to ensure that residents responded in spite of the Census Bureau's approach to the count, which is not necessarily a good fit for rural places and small towns.  

Also related is this recent post, which suggests that Newton County is about to "blow up"--meaning to experience explosive growth due to ecotourism.  Reminds me:  I wish this Newton County Times story had some data on the 2020 Census count for the county.  In 2010, it was 8,330.  

This overall population loss story is in contrast to another Newton County Times story in the same edition about an over-crowded 5th grade at Jasper school.  Here's an excerpt: 

Jasper Elementary School is experiencing growth in its fifth grade classroom. So much so that the Jasper School District Board of Education passed a resolution at its last board meeting, Aug. 16, supporting a waiver request affecting the class size and teaching load. 

Under the state statutes, for grades five through six, except for those courses that lend themselves to large group instruction, the average student/teacher ratio in a school district shall be no more than 25 students per teacher in a classroom. There shall be no more than 28 students per teacher in any classroom. 

Superintendent Dr. Candra Brasel told the school board that the fifth grade is up to 33 students this year. That amount of growth does not warrant hiring another teacher, but the school district can ask the education department for a waiver. She said that the plan calls for a paraprofessional to be assigned to the fifth grade classroom to assist the teacher.

This reminds me that when I was in the 5th grade at Jasper School, I was in a mixed 5th-6th class. which is how such matters were handled back then.   

In any event, it seems that the Newton County population bulge that is coming was born in 2011.   Will they stick around for the 2030 Census?  

Postscript:  About a month after this post, I read that Arkansas' population increased 3.3% between the 2010 and 2020 Censuses.