After almost a decade of losing population, rural America has seen renewed population growth. Between 2010 and 2020, the article “Rural America Lost Population Over the Past Decade for the First Time in History” describes how rural areas lost population compared to previous decades. The decline did not occur only in remote rural areas but also in rural areas adjacent to metropolitan counties. John Cromartie, a geographer from USDA in the Rural Economy Branch, Resource and Rural Economics Division, found a negative rural net migration rate between 2010 to 2016 and a near-zero rate between 2017 and 2020.
However, since 2020, rural net migration rates have increased. The 2023 USDA Economic Research Report, “Rural America at a Glance,” discusses how more than 480 rural counties saw a growth rate of two percent or more. Typically, these counties were near large metropolitan areas such as the southern Appalachians and Ozarks, the northern Great Lakes, and the Rocky Mountains. Population migration to these recreation and retirement destinations is often referred to as “amenity migration.”
One reason for the major shift in migration patterns was fear of exposure to COVID-19. Early in the pandemic, the USDA Economic Research Service reported that the presence of COVID-19 cases was higher in metropolitan areas until October 2021. This likely caused urban residents to seek shelter in rural places. However, soon after, nonmetropolitan areas started to experience a greater prevalence of cumulative COVID-19 cases than metropolitan areas.
Another reason for the big shift in migration patterns was an increase in remote job opportunities. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that telework increased among all industries between 2019 and 2021. When social distancing policies were removed in 2022, remote work participation fell slightly but was still higher in most industries compared to participation in 2019. “Rural America at a Glance describes how remote jobs have provided the working-age population with more flexibility and locational freedom. In addition to attracting new residents, employment opportunities have encouraged people to stay within these rural areas. In 2022, rural America reached record-low unemployment rates. Federal legislation, notably the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, provided new jobs for rural Americans in the clean energy industry.
Although rural America has been slowly growing its population, both current and future rural Americans are still facing problems. For example, “Rural America at a Glance” reports that housing insecurity remains a persistent issue for low-income nonmetropolitan renters, particularly among Hispanic and American Indian or Alaska Natives. Also, high poverty rates have been an ongoing problem for particular rural counties. Generally, though, poverty has been on a downward trend over the past fifteen years.
Rural America has seen an increase in population after losing a decade of negative and near-zero rural net migration rate. Despite this growth, there are still issues persisting in these areas. If rural America hopes to accommodate these future populations, there needs to be an emphasis on helping to increase resources and opportunities.
For more articles on rural population loss and its consequences, see Aging and population loss in small-town Pennsylvania and California rural schools facing teacher shortages.
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6 comments:
This makes me think about the article "When COVID hit, a Colorado county kicked out second-home owners. They hit back." If population growth is in part coming from COVID and remote working, how can we balance encouraging population growth with the possible dangers of gentrification in rural areas?
I really enjoyed this blog post — thank you so much for sharing. Like Sophie, I'm curious about the long-term solution. Especially in high tourist areas, where ecotourism might lend itself to further gentrification (like in the Bowlin article), I hope that future investment in affordable housing can counteract raised housing costs. I think your blog really speaks to the importance of investment in local economies, especially given the prevalence of COVID-19 and remote work.
One potential issue that rural areas might encounter in the next few years might be the loss of remote work. With the presidential election and new administration requiring all federal workers to return to the office, plus numerous tech companies enacting return-to-office (RTO) mandates, I am curious whether rural communities will be affected.
While some rural people might be glad to see these out-of-towners leave to comply with the RTO mandates, the effects may be crippling on communities. Imagine a community that was once dependent on tourism for its economy. During and after COVID, that community changed its economy's dependence from tourism to property and sale taxes after wealthy individuals moved in. What happens if all those rich people leave?
Some of the other comments mention the Bowlin article. From that article, one argument for the wealthy residents was that the wealthy supported the tiny town's economy. Without them, that economy would come tumbling down.
Interestingly, rural areas seem to have increased since COVID-19. Hopefully, those new additions will stay because there may be serious consequences if they do not.
I am, like Sophie and Avery, very curious not only about the long-term solutions for encouraging population growth and avoiding gentrification, but if the population increase will continue or if it is just a slight blip in a general downward trend. I am interested (and wary) to see what the effect of so many wealthy residents moving to new areas, without having had ties to those communities before as on these rural spaces. I feel it is possible that the driving up of housing costs might systematically push people out, so that there is a large level of people leaving over time in the next few years.
This made me think about how younger generations who grow up in rural communities often leave to live in a big city. In my own life, I've met people who grew up in rural parts of Washington and now live in Seattle, for example. With remote work, however, perhaps more people could stay home and live closer to their families. But, like everyone has said, this might be difficult with lesser opportunities for remote work.
I really enjoyed reading this post. I found it very interesting that one reason for rural population growth was the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting remote work opportunities. During the early parts of the pandemic, I was in Mount Shasta with my family. My family and I noticed an increase in the number of people in our small town. During that time it was interesting to hear that many people in Mount Shasta were upset with the influx of people. I believe that in some rural areas, this animosity still exists as people are often concerned about the gentrification of their rural communities. It will be interesting to see how this plays out over time.
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