Saturday, December 14, 2024

On whether Trump's policies will hurt rural America and ultimately cost him rural support

Ronald Brownstein wrote yesterday in The Atlantic under the headline, "Trump Is About to Betray His Rural Supporters."  Of course, it's conceivable that the journalist is wrong--that Trump won't be bad for rural people and places.  That said, Brownstein does bring the receipts regarding specific policies on trade (as relates to agriculture), immigration, health care, and education.  Here's the key paragraph in that regard: 

Agricultural producers could face worse losses than any other economic sector from Trump’s plans to impose sweeping tariffs on imports and to undertakewhat he frequently has called “the largest domestic deportation operation” of undocumented immigrants “in American history.” Hospitals and other health providers in rural areas could face the greatest strain from proposals Trump has embraced to slash spending on Medicaid, which provides coverage to a greater share of adults in smaller communities than in large metropolitan areas. And small-town public schools would likely be destabilized even more than urban school districts if Trump succeeds in his pledge to expand “school choice” by providing parents with vouchers to send their kids to private schools.

Brownstein later unpacks and provides more information on each of these issues.  In addition, He provides data on how Trump's support from rural voters has grown with each of the three times he ran for president:  

Trump’s vote share in the nonmetro areas exceeded even his commanding 66 percent there against Joe Biden in 2020 and 67 percent against Hillary Clinton in 2016. Trump’s advantage in the small metros outstripped his margin over Biden and equaled his advantage over Clinton.

The story also includes data on other geographies, including small metropolitan areas [here citing The Daily Yonder]:  

In the second most-rural grouping, small metropolitan areas, Trump won 60 percent of the vote compared with Vice President Kamala Harris’s 40 percent. In the top most-rural category, nonmetropolitan areas, Trump beat Harris even more resoundingly, by 69 percent to 31 percent.

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