Rural vulnerabilities in a changing climate

A number of world-renowned scientists regard climate change as one of, if not the, greatest modern threats to humanity (see here, here, and here). Among other dire consequences, climate change threatens global food production and water supply, access to natural resources, ecosystem health and biodiversity, and physical safety from natural disasters. All of these will surely have deleterious effects on international peace, stability, and human health.

Rural areas, especially those lacking in modern infrastructure, are the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. This is as true as in the U.S. as it is worldwide. The National Climate Assessment attributes rural vulnerability to a number of geographic and demographic obstacles, such as physical isolation, lack of infrastructure (including emergency response, healthcare, and transportation), lack of political power, limited economic diversity, higher poverty rates, and an aging population.

Sadly, we are already seeing the effects of climate change on rural areas in the United States. In Texas's Rio Grande Valley, drought is approaching disastrous levels. Tornadoes are also getting worse and more frequent across the South and Southeast. 

Rural communities in California are similarly feeling the effects of climate change. Take, for example, the worsening wildfires in 2021 that devastated rural communities across the state but particularly in Northern California and the Sierra Nevadas. As if we needed more extreme weather, just two years after the worst wildfires in California history, an extremely wet winter brought flooding to many areas of rural California like Pajaro, a small town of 3,509 people.

One consequence of climate change that will surely become one of the most pressing issues in the next decades is mass migration driven by climate change. For the United States, this likely means that people living on the coasts, like in New Orleans and the Bay Area, will have to migrate inland to avoid sea level rise.  In fact, NASA estimates that U.S. coastlines could rise 12 inches above their current level by 2050. Climate change could also mean people living in areas prone to natural disasters (like drought in the Southwest and tornadoes in the South) will need to migrate to more hospitable climates.

However, elsewhere in the world, climate change has meant a migration of people from hot and poor rural areas into cities. For example, in the African Sahel, widespread drought and crop failure displaced millions of rural people to coastal cities. Pakistan, a country that has been notoriously hit by extreme weather conditions, has seen more than 680,000 climate refugees relocate to overflowing urban slums. This will only get worse: Pakistan is expected to have nearly 2 million climate refugees by 2050.

So what should be done to alleviate some of the effects that climate change will have on rural areas around the world? The rural communities chapter of the Fourth National Climate Assessment has some answers.

The assessment, for example, suggests a number of measures to support the adaptive capacity of rural communities. These measures primarily involve money: the assessment highly recommends investing in modern infrastructure, including rural transportation, broadband access, healthcare, and emergency response systems. More education, greater political power, diversification of local economies, and updated regulations and building codes are also key.

Overall, climate change represents a dangerous and imminent threat to rural areas, with catastrophic and irreparable consequences if nothing is done to mitigate its effects. All levels of government need to give rural areas the special consideration they require now. If not, full-scale disaster will decimate rural populations in the U.S. and around the world.