Thursday, June 17, 2021

Not all of rural California has been moving rightward, at least not compared to the last gubernatorial recall

This map, published in today's Los Angeles Times, shows the Democratic vote share in the elections of  Gavin Newsom (2018) compared to that of Governor Gray Davis (2002).  The 2003 recall of Davis was successful, installing Arnold Schwarzenegger as California's first Republican governor in a while.  Golden State voters will decide this fall whether to recall Newsom. 

In any event, this map of how folks voted for Governor in 2018 compared to 2002 suggests a left-ward political migration in some surprising places in rural California.  The places that look more Democratic leaning in 2018 than in 2002 include Siskiyou County in the far north, a hub of the State of Jefferson movement.  Other places where Newsom had more support than Davis include much of the Great Central Valley, Del Norte, Trinity, Humboldt, Mendocino (the Emerald Triangle--then an illegal pot growing region, now a potentially legal one), and also the Eastern Sierra and the Inland Empire.  

The only places trending right-ward between the Davis election and the Newsom election are the Gold Country foothills east of Sacramento (El Dorado, Amador and Calaveras counties), Lake County, and a cluster of counties in far northern California including Shasta, Tehama, Plumas, Lassen and Modoc.  The latter, along with the Gold Country, have become strong holds of the State of Jefferson, as the movement has crept southward.  Again, that's in contrast to Siskiyou County, a traditional State of Jefferson stronghold.  

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