Leo Tolstoy’s novel Anna Karenina opens with “All happy families are alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.” This beautiful opening, once mulled over and mulched through by a stable of intellectuals and thinkers, birthed the “Anna Karenina Principle,” which dictates that a deficiency in any one of a number of factors results in failure, while success requires that every possible deficiency has been avoided. That is, while the avoidance of failure is not sufficient for a successful condition, it is necessary. This does not deal with personal or metaphysical concepts of success, but rather individual iterations of success. In plain language, a successful outcome requires an absence of failure, as explained below.
Tuesday, May 20, 2025
A Sustained Transition (Part II): Place, Personality, and Progress
Leo Tolstoy’s novel Anna Karenina opens with “All happy families are alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.” This beautiful opening, once mulled over and mulched through by a stable of intellectuals and thinkers, birthed the “Anna Karenina Principle,” which dictates that a deficiency in any one of a number of factors results in failure, while success requires that every possible deficiency has been avoided. That is, while the avoidance of failure is not sufficient for a successful condition, it is necessary. This does not deal with personal or metaphysical concepts of success, but rather individual iterations of success. In plain language, a successful outcome requires an absence of failure, as explained below.
Sunday, April 10, 2022
The toll of the Russian invasion on Ukraine's rural and agricultural sector
![]() |
| Ukrainian farmer stealing Russian tank, an image that appeared in many memes during the early days of the Russian invasion |
![]() |
| Meme from early in Russian invasion of Ukraine. Caption is, "It's not much, but it's honest work," referring to theft of Russian tank |
“My farm has turned to ruins,” said Grigoriy Tkachenko, a farmer in the village of Lukashivka, near the northern Ukrainian city of Chernihiv. “There is almost nothing left.”
* * *
The farm — his cattle, warehouses and machinery — was the product of his life’s work. After working in collective farms when Ukraine was under Soviet rule, Mr. Tkachenko bought about 15 acres of land and seven cows in 2005. Over the years, he expanded his operation to 3,700 acres and 170 cows, also producing corn, wheat, sunflowers and potatoes.
“What we built over decades,” he said, “they destroyed it over just a few days.”
Farmland covers 70 percent of the country and agricultural products were Ukraine’s top export, making up nearly 10 percent of its gross domestic product. Ukraine was one of the world’s main exporters of corn and wheat and the biggest exporter of sunflower oil.
The country now has 13 million tons of соrn and 3.8 million tons of wheat that it cannot export using its usual routes, primarily by sea, the deputy agriculture minister, Taras Vysotsky, said last week.
Mr. Chaplik is a fraying connection to the world for his increasingly isolated village, which he asked not be named so it would not suffer retribution from Russian troops. At considerable risk to himself, he provides vital supplies and information, and keeps producing food as best he can.
Many other farmers have left the area but he said he could not. “I can’t leave the people,” he said. “If I leave, I will not be able to return to the village, I will not be able to look people in the eye.”
But as the war has crept closer, he has had to shrink his business while trying to keep the farm producing and workers fed and paid. With utilities cut off, he runs the milk machines on generators, but can only operate his refrigerators for 12 hours a day.
Friday, October 29, 2021
Can rurality help hide money-laundering?
Using businesses in rural America for money laundering is a central premise of the Netflix series "Ozarks," and it's also the gist of this Politico story about the recent shenanigans of a Ukrainian oligarch in a small Illinois town. The story is headlined, "A Ukrainian Oligarch Bought a Midwestern Factory and Let it Rot. What Was Really Going On?"
Here's an excerpt from the latter, which is definitely not fiction:
Recently, wealthy elites have begun looking for other places to park their funds, places they think authorities won’t look. Places that offer all the financial secrecy these elites need, but that few would associate with lives of luxury. As a result, shadowy and sometimes ill-gotten wealth has started pouring not just into yachts and vacation homes, but also into blue-collar towns in the U.S. whose economic struggles make them eager to accept the cash.
One of these small towns appears to have been Harvard, Ill., a depressed factory community that allegedly became part of a sprawling network used by Ukrainian banking tycoon Ihor Kolomoisky to launder hundreds of millions of dollars earned from a Ponzi scheme. Kolomoisky, who was recently hit with U.S. sanctions for “significant corruption” in Ukraine, is separately accused by the Justice Department and Ukrainian investigators of using a constellation of shell companies and offshore bank accounts to move millions in misappropriated funds out of Ukraine and into a series of real-estate investments in the American Midwest. (Kolomoisky denies wrongdoing, claiming he made the investments with his own money.)
My article on how rural spatiality conceals crime is here.
Tuesday, February 16, 2021
Florida breach signals why state and local cybersecurity infrastructure matters
Many infrastructure and national security experts, and most likely your organization’s IT department, have long warned about growing cybersecurity risks (see the New York Times reporter David Sanger’s 2018 book and Brookings podcast). Last December, cyber experts discovered the SolarWinds operation, uncovering a massive, sophisticated hack by Russian spies that targeted the U.S. federal government and affected 18,000 computer networks. Shortly after, President Biden committed to making cybersecurity a top priority.
Generally, only the more sensational cyber breaches implicating national security, like SolarWinds, or those resulting in expensive losses, make headlines. Other infrastructure breaches do not always capture the same attention, which is one reason the story surrounding the breach of a water treatment plant in Oldsmar, Florida is so noteworthy. This event shows the significant risks associated with weak state and local cyber infrastructure and suggests Washington shouldn’t be the only level of government concerned about cybersecurity.
On February 9, hackers remotely accessed a major water treatment plant in Oldsmar, FL and manipulated the level of sodium hydroxide — “you’re basically talking about lye” — to unsafe levels that would have seriously sickened residents. Fortunately, an employee realized in the nick of time that an external force was controlling his computer, and no one was harmed.
Oldsmar, a town of 15,000 and a suburb of Tampa, is not a rural area according to the USDA. However, this incident shines light on threats posed by weak cybersecurity infrastructures across geographies, including in rural areas. As the New York Times reported:
“[Smaller systems] are the targets we worry about,” said Eric Chien, a security researcher at Symantec. “This is a small municipality that is likely small-budgeted and under-resourced, which purposely set up remote access so employees and outside contractors can remote in.”
Cybersecurity experts like to divide the world into two categories: those who have been hacked, and those who have been hacked but don’t know it.
This is a fascinating feature of cyber-attacks. Hackers do not always target the deepest pockets. Malware technology enables hackers to go indiscriminately after a wide swath of devices at once via phishing or ransomware, enabling hackers to get smaller amounts of money from lots of different sources. Some ways hackers make a profit include holding data at ransom, selling huge quantities of personal identifiable information for tiny amounts on the dark web, or adding an innocuous line item on a credit card statement.
Hackers frequently target weak security systems like small businesses, local governments, or independent medical providers and clinics. For example, in 2019, 23 town governments in Texas were hit by a coordinated hack. Also that year, non-metro Archuleta County in southwest Colorado was hacked and a $300k ransom was demanded. This kept the network down for weeks with a various costs. The county purchased more laptops and technical equipment, personnel spent weeks manually inputting records, and law enforcement operations were reduced.
Additionally, some experts say that the pandemic has led to increased attacks because of our national reliance on digital infrastructure. Covid has underscored cybersecurity gaps in the education system. A December 2020 FBI report notes a significant increase in attacks on schools.
In August and September, 57% of ransomware incidents reported . . . involved K-12 schools, compared to 28% of all reported ransomware incidents from January through July.
These examples (hacks on schools, water systems, and medical centers) are not specific to rural communities, but they do show that cybersecurity is very much a rural threat too. Authorities have not identified the culprit of the Oldsmar breach yet. Frankly, it sounds a little alarmist to think that a foreign adversary might be hacking a water system, but maybe not. Regardless of who the hacker is, however, incidents like the one in Florida give more credence to the warnings of cybersecurity Cassandras.
As previously discussed on this blog and in Prof. Lisa Pruitt's op-ed, increasing access to broadband should be an immediate priority for American policymakers. Accessing the internet implicates cybersecurity interests because users, whether they be individuals, local governments, or public utilities, rely on secure access. As policymakers consider proposals to expand broadband, breaches like the one in Florida or Archuleta County suggest it is not worth skimping on cybersecurity measures.
Sunday, August 23, 2020
Literary Ruralism (Part XXVI): The Tsar of Love and Techno
The "place" in Marra's book is a Siberian town north of the Arctic circle, Kirovsk, where nickel was mined and, as a consequence, pollution has been rife and its effects have accumulated over the years. Yet, after several generations there, the descendants of those shipped there because they were disloyal to Stalin (or perceived to be), people are reluctant to leave. Marra writes via the voice of a 30-something woman whose grandparents were exiled to Kirovsk by Stalin:
The layoffs began shortly after the first war in Chechnya ended. Automated machines mined nickel with greater efficiency than our husbands. Pensions vanished in the fluctuations of foreign stock exchanges. Even those who kept their jobs struggled. With the collapsing ruble, the payments of wages and pensions delayed for months, no one could afford the imported products that replaced familiar Soviet brands. We considered moving to a milder climate but couldn't manage relocation costs. Besides, our children were the fourth generation to call the Arctic home. This meant something even if we didn't know quite what.
Monday, May 27, 2019
For rural folks (including physicians), things are tough all over (including in Russia)
One issue gaining traction in particular is the impoverishment of doctors in rural Russia. After a medical procedure, it is more often the doctor than the patient who winds up with sticker shock — not because the payments are so outrageous, but because they are so small.
Dr. Korovin, who is paid about $8,670 a year and extra for after-hours operations, recently treated a man with a stab wound to his lower abdomen.
For that hour-and-a-half, after-hours operation, the hospital, which is funded by Russia’s state-run insurance program, paid Dr. Korovin 500 rubles, or $7.70.It's thus not surprising that physicians and nurses are pressing for "local authorities fulfill a decree signed by Mr. Putin that doctors be paid twice the average salary of the region where they work." In the Novgorod area, that would be about $11,448, about a third more than Korovin now earns. Compare that to the average salary for a physician in the U.S., which is $313,000. Indeed, where hospitals are able to keep their doors open, jobs in healthcare are critical to sustaining rural economies.
Interestingly, Dr. Korovin says he voted for Putin, "we all voted for Putin." That brings me to this terrific line from Kramer's story:
But the brush fires of provincial discontent highlight the disconnect between Russia’s chest-thumping rise abroad and its stagnating economy at home.As in the earlier Russia story about which I posted nearly six years ago, there seems to be a big disconnect between the local and the national in Russian politics. Putin is attractive as a strongman on the national stage, which may help him escape backlash over failures of lower scales of government.
Friday, July 4, 2014
My Rural Travelogue (Part XVII): Northern Norway
| Road signs near Kirkenes, Norway, June, 2014 |
| Vardo Cultural Center |
![]() |
| Kirkenes church |
As noted above, Kirkenes and the region have an airport served by Oslo and a few other Norwegian cities--our flights on SAS booked a number of months in advance for just $120, about half of which was for taxes. Other tiny places along our journey also had airports, and once we were flying out of Norway from Bergen, I noticed the large number of flights going to remote towns where we had recently been, like Bronnoysund, population 4625. It is very hard to imagine such a comprehensive transit infrastructure in such a sparsely populated region of the United States. (As for other types of public infrastructure, I note that Kirkenes had quite a large library in the center of town. Every town had a cultural center, and the one at Vardo is pictured above).
| Inn near Honningsvag, moved here from Lillehammer Olympics |
One reason for some of this transportation infrastructure throughout sparsely populated parts of Norway is tourism, both domestic and international. In the winter seeing the northern lights and going out on a sledge pulled by huskies is the thing. As for us, we were there for the midnight sun--on the longest day of the year, when the light level seemed more dictated by cloud cover or lack thereof than by time of day. Apparently there are lots of reindeer in the area, but we didn't see any in this part of Finnmark (we did see them elsewhere, on the island of Mageroya, in the area of Northern Cape and Honningsvag).
| Street lights and bike path between Storskog/Russian Border and Kirkenes, near Elvenes, Norway |
The farther south we journeyed, the less "rural" the country looked, though single homes and small clusters of home are visible up and down the coast. It's hard to know how many of them are summer homes, but all appeared well kept. While our guide on Mageroya mentioned the area's population loss (in addition to the fact that children on the island have 13 years of education available there and must leave only for university studies), I'm thinking that the massive investment in transportation infrastructure--which in turn facilitates summer tourism--keeps many communities alive, if not thriving. Other than tourism, fishing remains king all along the coast, and the Norwegian government still seems to assume it needs people to populate these villages--not merely to have workers fly in and fly out (as in Australia's remote mining regions) to work for a few weeks at a time. Otherwise, it surely would not be so generous in support of infrastructure for these remote locales.
(I am reminded of this story in the New York Times from a few weeks ago--about Barentsburg, Norway. Barentsburg is on Svalbard, a Norwegian archipelago north of this part of Norway, in the Barents Sea. The economy there is mining based and many workers are transplanted from the Ukraine. On Svalbard, too, however, a tourism economy is growing. Indeed, Hurtigruten, who operated our "coastal express" also run tours there).
When I planned this trip to Norway, I wasn't thinking of it as an opportunity to see a rural place, but it certainly was. Indeed, I'm now thinking that Norway, and other parts of Scandinavia, may feature the most rural parts of Europe. And the experience has me thinking in new ways about how governments can support rural and remote communities.
| Arrivals room at Kirkenes Airport |
| Bus stop in Elevenes, near Kirkenes, Norway |
Tuesday, October 15, 2013
On the Russia left behind
Beyond Valdai, where collective farms once extended for miles in all directions, heading off the highway for more than a few miles is like leaving the known world.
Between the great cities are hundreds of disappearing settlements: towns becoming villages, villages becoming forest. The Soviets cut off support for them during efficiency drives in the 1960s and ’70s, which categorized villages as “promising” or “unpromising.”
But the death of a village is a slow process. A geographer, Tatiana Nefyodova, calls them “black holes,” and estimates that they make up 70 to 80 percent of Russia’s northwest, where Moscow and St. Petersburg act as giant vacuum cleaners, sucking people and capital from the rest of the country.Barry interviews 42-year-old Nina Kolesnikova who lives with her husband and two young sons in Pochinok. Kolesnikova says that at times they live as if on an island because the road connecting them to the M10 is not maintained year round. When asked why she does not leave, Barry writes:
she gave an answer that would resonate with any Russian: The air is clean. They gather berries and mushrooms in the summer. They produce their own cottage cheese and sour cream. “Everything is ours,” she said.Barry's description of her visit to Torzhok touches on the way in which responsibility for the deterioration of small-town Russia gets attributed to the failings of local government, thereby letting the national government off the hook for the decline.
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Rural Montana ranch seeks to be respite for adoptees
Here's an excerpt that criticizes Sterkel's approach to dealing with these troubled children, challenging the power of this natural setting to deal with profound physiological and psychological problems facing many of these children:
Ranch for Kids now has 30 children, ages 5 to 17, some of whom stay for a month or two, some for years. Critics say the ranch, and places like it that focus on experience as therapy — exposure to nature, animals and rules of ranch life — are islands of unreality that do not fundamentally address a child’s problems.


