The rural vote in 2020 (Part IV): Pennsylvania

 The "Keystone State," Pennsylvania, has drawn more attention than perhaps any other as regards the "rural-urban" stakes in the upcoming election.  Here are some of the recent stories:

From NPR on Sept. 14, 2020, came this report from NPR's Don Gonyea, "Swing Voters In Northwestern Pennsylvania Weigh In On Fall Election," out of Erie County, population 269,728.  This story treats as significant the distinction between Erie County (rural and exurban) and its county seat, Erie, with a population of just over 100,000.  Here's some background and recent history on the region's voting patterns in presidential politics:  

Across the country, there were only a couple hundred counties that had voted for President Obama when he was on the ballot and then flipped and voted for Donald Trump. One of them is Erie County, Pa. We all know how close Pennsylvania was. Erie County was one of the keys to Trump's victory there. And let's run the numbers. Obama, in '08, won the state by 20 points. He won by almost as much again in 2012. 2016, Trump wins it by 1,957 votes - so, so close.

From the Washington Post, Jenna Johnson reports under the headline, "The latest battlefield in a heated presidential campaign: Front yards bearing Biden signs."  Here's the lede:   

Across Pennsylvania — especially in rural communities — tens of thousands of yard signs supporting Joe Biden have popped up as his fans try to replicate how President Trump showed his growing support in the state when he was campaigning in 2016. And, just as quickly, some of those signs have been vanishing.

It usually happens in the dark of night, local Democrats say, but sometimes in daylight. Sometimes entire streets or neighborhoods are cleared. Pro-Biden Facebook groups have devoted long threads to strategies for deterring sign snatchers — one suggestion involves clear hair gel and pesky glitter, another electrifying the metal frame with a car battery.

While sign thefts are a problem every election year for candidates of both parties — and are an ongoing source of headaches for campaign staffers and party officials — some Democrats in Pennsylvania and several other states insist it’s worse for them this year and illustrates the emotional intensity of the coming election. While there are examples of Trump signs also disappearing, there hasn’t been the same level of public outcry.

From Wilkes-Barre, population 41,000,  Noah Bierman reports for the Los Angeles Times, "Pennsylvania’s blue-collar voters see danger — and back Trump."  Here's an excerpt:  

“There’s always been racism. There’s always gonna be racism, but it’s not him that’s doing it,” Williams, a white, 53-year-old stay-at-home mom, said outside a Walmart. “It’s the Democrats and the media that are getting it out there and keeping it out there. And if the riots don’t get taken care of, it’s just making it worse.”

Williams said she did not vote in presidential elections before Trump came along in 2016. Now, she is an essential part of his 2020 coalition. She lives in Wilkes-Barre, in blue-collar Luzerne County, one of three Pennsylvania counties that flipped from blue to red in 2016 and helped give Trump the state — and a narrow electoral college victory.

About swing voters generally, don't miss The Daily podcast's episode on swing voters, particularly in relation to the vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court.