Coronavirus in rural America (Part LXXXVIII): update on my hometown

Screenshot from New York Times 7:12 am (PST) August 28, 2020

A month ago, I wrote about a coronavirus outbreak in the nursing home in Newton County, Arkansas, where I grew up. That story indicated a severe outbreak--very high incidence per capita--but/and centered at the county nursing home, which is owned by the county, an unusual arrangement.  Since then, the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette reported on August 1 a follow up to its initial story: 

The nursing home accounts for 85% of all virus cases in the county, based on numbers released Friday by the Arkansas Department of Health. 

The Newton County Nursing Home is the only such facility in the county, which has a population of 8,330. 

A worker at the nursing home tested positive March 31, according to the Health Department, but that employee was sent home and the virus was kept at bay until last week, when the first patient tested positive. 

By July 24, the Health Department said, there were 50-60 positive cases at the nursing home, but exact numbers didn’t show up in the department’s “nursing homes and congregate settings” list until Thursday — 50 positive patients and 27 positive health care workers. However, two of those workers have recovered. 

[Rachel] Bunch [executive director of the Arkansas Health Care Association] said the number 50 for patients includes three people who had been living at the nursing home but died at hospitals.

Bunch's statement is a little confusing since the story doesn't specify the number of COVID-19 deaths at the nursing home, just other data points, e.g., 50-60 positive cases.  Also, Bunch says she doesn't now how many folks in the nursing home are symptomatic, nor how the "virus got in." 

Here's what the state's long-term care facility map and chart looks like currently

Screenshot from Arkansasonline.com 7:20 am (PST) August 28, 2020
Newton County is the county, three east of Oklahoma,
second south from Missouri, with the large dot indicating number of cases
in long-term care facilities.  

This chart shows 59 positive residents, 30 positive staff members, but no "resident deaths" at the Newton County nursing home.  This is in spite of that August 1 story from the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette which alluded to three deaths, albeit occurring at a hospital after the patient was moved from the nursing home.  That story also includes this paragraph deeper in the report:

Late Friday [July 31], the Health Department updated its online coronavirus count to show 91 total positive cases in Newton County. Nineteen people had recovered and three died. That means 85% of the county’s total positive virus cases can be traced to the nursing home.

Were the three deaths nursing home deaths, I wondered?  It isn't clear from the story.

The chart above is also inconsistent with what I see reported in the Newton County Times.  The August 19, 2020 issue of that local paper shows two nursing home deaths in the obituaries section, Iva Jean Berry, 88, and Christine Robie, age 85.  The obituary for the former says she died at the Newton County Nursing Home on August 12, 2020, and the one for the latter says she died the day before, August 11, 2020, also at the Newton County Nursing Home in Jasper.  Meanwhile, the August 12, 2020, issue of the Newton County Times reports that 84-year-old Alice Tenison and 63-year-old Dale Rocole, died at the Newton County Nursing Home.  Both died on August 5, 2020.  The August 26, 2020 issue arrived today, and it reports no nursing home deaths. 

With all of these deaths, one can't help wonder if deaths were due to COVID, as has been reported in national media given the higher volume of deaths (than usual) in 2020.  Plus, nothing in the obituaries indicates cause of death, which is typical of obituaries in this newspaper, even if the cause of death is traumatic, like a car accident.  So, these four early August nursing home deaths may well be--are likely to be--COVID caused.  One thing I do find odd--especially if these are COVID deaths and therefore of patients known to have tested positive for COVID--is that the nursing home residents had not been transferred to area hospitals for treatment.  Why did they die at the nursing home, assuming that fact was reported accurately in the obituaries?

The August 19, 2020 issue of the Newton County Times also mentions on the cover page the death of a physician, 84-year-old Roy Lee, who lived in Newton County but worked in Boone County and southern Missouri.  This story is explicit about the cause of death:  COVID-19.  I'm not sure why the distinction unless his family wanted it that way.  Also, I guess because he is a physician--an important figure in the community?--his death runs as a front-page story, with a separate obituary for him also on the front page.  Or maybe it is the fact he died of COVID that caused the editor to run this as a front page story.  The story quotes

At the other end of the age spectrum, Arkansas has sent its public school students back to school.  Here's what the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette reported yesterday, on that front:

Yesterday, the Health Department released a report showing that 1,126 public school students and 356 employees at the schools had tested positive for the coronavirus since June 15.

Among students and employees, 411 of the infections remained active as of Thursday, meaning the person had not yet recovered.

At his briefing, Hutchinson presented a lower set of statewide school numbers that included only cases from districts with five or more active cases.

He said that “seems like a very modest number” relative to the state’s 480,000 public school students.

“Why it’s important for us to have this starting point, and that’s really what I’m most interested in, is that this is a number really before school activity has started,” Hutchinson said.

“If there was an infection, the students would have got that outside of the school activities to be a statistic right now, and so we’ll be able to measure from that two weeks from now, three weeks, four weeks from now, and I expect that number to go up, but we’ll see.”

Several weeks ago, the governor announced that the state would use a $10 million CARES Act grant to provide hot spots and other means of digital access for Arkansas's public school students.