Sunday, November 17, 2019

Will Democratic wins in Kentucky, Virginia, and Louisiana further isolate rural voters?

I hope not, but that's what coverage of these successful Democratic campaigns suggests by focusing on heavy turnout by suburban and urban voters, who leaned left.  Here's an excerpt from New York Times coverage of the Louisiana governor's race
What was different in Louisiana [with Governor Edwards, who proved distinct from other "well-credentialed and well-liked candidates who have fallen prey to forbidding political demographics of their states or districts"] was that Mr. Edwards enjoyed a huge spike between the all-party primary last month and the Saturday runoff among the voters who Mr. Trump most alienates: While turnout grew modestly in many of the rural areas, it jumped by 29 percent in New Orleans and 25 percent in the parish that includes Shreveport, and it was nearly as high in Baton Rouge and in the largest New Orleans suburbs.

In that context, Mr. Trump’s two appearances in the state between the primary and runoff had the effect of motivating the Democratic base as much as it did the conservative one.
The New York Times coverage of Democratic wins in Kentucky and Virginia nearly two weeks ago struck a similar note, emphasizing the role of the suburban vote turned more progressive: 
Democrats won complete control of the Virginia government for the first time in a generation on Tuesday and claimed a narrow victory in the Kentucky governor’s race, as Republicans struggled in suburbs where President Trump is increasingly unpopular.
* * *  
Coming one year before the presidential election, the races reflected the country’s increasingly contentious politics and the widening rural-urban divide. 
Nowhere was that more apparent than in Kentucky, where Mr. Beshear ran far better than national Democrats in the state’s lightly-populated counties but built his advantage thanks in large part to his overwhelming strength in the state’s cities and suburbs.
From the same story is this paragraph about shifts in suburban voters outside Philadelphia (with no rural comparator since these are local elections): 
But the news was more ominous for Republicans in Pennsylvania, a critical state for Mr. Trump’s re-election, where Democrats were poised to gain control of local government in a handful of suburban Philadelphia counties that have long been Republican strongholds.
To be clear, I'm delighted at these Democratic victories--and the fact that suburban voters are seeing the light and moving away from Trump.  Suburban is often code for middle-class and affluent white, so it's interesting and positive, too, that Trump is losing that support.  But if rural folks are still sticking with Trump, that's discouraging because it's going to leave them more isolated--and even more reviled by the left than they already are. 

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