New survey shows (some) rural Americans more optimistic than their urban counterparts

The AP reported yesterday on a new survey from the American Communities Project that shows, among other findings, that certain rural Americans--those living in counties the survey designers designate "Rural Middle America" are more optimistic than the average American.  Here's the part of the AP story about rural optimism: 

Rising optimism in rural areas, despite economic anxiety

Rural residents are feeling more upbeat about the country’s trajectory — even though most aren’t seeing Trump’s promised economic revival.

The $15 price tag on a variety pack of Halloween candy at the Kroger supermarket last month struck Carl Gruber. Disabled and receiving federal food aid, the 42-year-old from Newark, Ohio, had hardly been oblivious to lingering, high supermarket prices.

But Gruber, whose wife also is unable to work, is hopeful about the nation’s future, primarily in the belief that prices will moderate as Trump suggests.

“Right now, the president is trying to get companies who moved their businesses out of the country to move them back,” said Gruber, a Trump voter whose support has wavered over the federal shutdown that delayed his monthly food benefit. “So, maybe we’ll start to see prices come down.”

About 6 in 10 residents of Rural Middle America — Newark’s classification in the survey — say they are hopeful about the country’s future over the next few years, up from 43% in the 2024 ACP survey. Other communities, like heavily evangelical areas or working-class rural regions, have also seen an uptick in optimism.

Kimmie Pace, a 33-year-old unemployed mother of four from a small town in northwest Georgia, said, “I have anxiety every time I go to the grocery store.”

But she, too, is hopeful in Trump. “Trump’s in charge, and I trust him, even if we’re not seeing the benefits yet,” she said.

It's important to note that not all rural or nonmetro counties are designated "Rural Middle America", and I'd say the lion's share of the counties in that category are in the Midwest. Many are in Iowa, Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin, for example, with a few in coastal states, including New York, Washigton and Oregon.  Many nonmetro counties, including my home county in Arkansas are designated "Evangelical Hubs" and others--as in New England--are designated "Graying America."  You can find the cool color-coded map here.  And here's a chart showing the movement in attitudes from all groups.  It shows Native Americans as even more optimistic than "Rural Middle America."   Optimism also rose among other groups associated with rurality, including "Evangelical Hubs", "Aging Farmland", "Working-Class Country" and "Exurbs."   

You can read more about the methodology for assigning counties to the various categories here.  

Postscript:  On Nov. 20, Newsweek published this story about rural-urban difference in the survey.   I'll feature a few posts from that story here.  First, this is from Shannon Monnat, President Elect of the Rural Sociological Society and Director of the Center for Public Policy Reform at Syracuse University:   

Rural communities tend to be concerned with "cultural recognition, respect, and visibility," Mon " nat said, as many have experienced "long-term economic losses, population aging, poor health, and weakening local institutions," so she added that when their daily life is "shaped by these challenges, national politics can become a symbolic arena where people seek affirmation.

It's also important to remember that rural communities "vary tremendously in their economies, the types of people who live in them, and political orientations," Monnat said, so not all rural communities will feel the same.

* * * 

"Painting these results as rural versus urban masks the diversity within nonmetropolitan counties, which make up the vast majority of counties in the U.S.," Carrie Henning-Smith, a professor of health policy and management at the University of Minnesota, told Newsweek.

* * * 

"Some parts of rural America are thriving, while other parts face significant challenges both now and in the future," Kenneth Johnson, a professor of sociology at the University of New Hampshire, told Newsweek.

* * * 

However, in other areas, rural counties are depopulating, meaning they reached their peak population decades ago and have now lost around 25 percent of that population, Johnson said.

This is partly because in "the majority of rural counties, more people die than are born each year," as "access to health care is more limited," he added. It is also because many rural areas are losing young adults to urban areas and cities, he said.

Finally, I am quoted regarding Democrats' disinvestment in the rural vote.